Baffled by Science

[The Great Wallsendo]

Looking to go fishing this friday...

So I look at the wind...20mph N/Westerlies
Average Temp'...0 deg' C
Tide...23:23 (3.79m) HW
Surf report...average 12 ft swells

Bearing in mind that that this all taken as of this point in time so things WILL change

A couple of things confuse me (because I have a lot of time on my hands to think of these things )

Can the surf report be correct given the projected wind forecast? Can N/W winds whip the sea into a frenzy or is it aided by other factors?

Would a huge raging sea counteract what is effectively a "medium" sized tide? Therefore allowing you to fish marks that are classed as "big" tide venues?

or is this just all waffly scientific rhetoric and I should just get on with the fishing?....or is the sea state gonna be too BIG to fish in and I should stay in LOL?

[Vamp]

So I look at the wind...20mph N/Westerlies
Average Temp'...0 deg' C
Tide...23:23 (3.79m) HW
Surf report...average 12 ft swells

North Westerlies Sea will be flat as a F&RT with prob no swell at all,and the odd white cap further out because of the wind coming off the land.
For us to have a deacent sea on we need SE-E-NE-N winds If they aint in that direction sea state will be pretty calm,fishing a rock mark would prob be your best bet.

[SCOTSLAD]

Norht Westerly winds will not give you the size of sea quoted as I am sure you are well aware. BBC long range forecast is normally pretty good but I would leave the fishing venue until you poke your nose outdoors on the day of your trip ! With the choice of marks you have on your doorstep you can always find a fishing spot no matter what the sea conditions are. If the sea is heavy I would try the cliff marks in S Shields or the river.

[Stores]

Not sure I agree with your theory Vamp about the sea being flat. A north - westerly that blows for a day or two won't, as you say, create a good sea, but it will build a considerable roll, better for the rock ends than the beaches.
Wallsendo....as you've so much time on your hands try looking at the barometer as well and see if you can predict fishing success using barometric pressure. I find it more than just interesting.
With regard to the tide the NW roll will make no difference to the size. Scientifically think of it as:

3.79 tide = x, therefore, if the roll = y, at any given point on the beach or the rocks:

Swash = x + y and the backwash = x - y

Tricky thing this science. Glad I go to work. lol

[mark]

your tide height is just prediction, and seldom accurate, usually there or there abouts but never bang on. A big Westerly or North westerly blow will knock quite a bit off the tide height, just the same as an easterly will add a bit, sometimes a lot. Was in scotland 3 years ago when locally the tide was 2 metres over the predicted height, and that was at springs as well, forced up by a big westerly that had blown for a few days

the rolling swell created by your NW'ly will change as the tide moves, when the tide flows with the wind, the swell will get bigger, when it flows against the wind the swell will get smaller

If you want to really get scientific, with your sea state predictions you need to look at what the weather/wind is doing further afield, the sea is (surpise surpise) a fluid body, and a lot of the movement in it will have been hundreds, possibly thousands (not in the east coast though) of miles away

but then as it nears land and the sea shallows, its characteristics will be change dramatically, depending on local geography both above and below the water, as the water gets pinched and squeezed around underwater terrain

the wave period predictions are usually reasonably accurate, as they tend to come from weather stations/buoys out at sea dotted all round the coastline, but should only be taken as a generalisation till your a mile or so offshore

got a link somewhere so you can get the data live from each station

if you want really hard science do some googling for the coriolis effect, pretty much what makes the wind do what it does

[ScottyJim]

If your getting your info from sites like Magic Seaweed, its a wee bit like the "chocolate teapot". As Mark says above, there are so many variables, that unless you've read the tea leaves properly, preferably under a blue moon, your unlikely to get even a half accurate forecast. In fact, if you look at these sites disclaimers, they usually say that the forecasts are offshore predictions, based presumably around one of the wavebuoys several miles off. The other thing is the swell heights. They are possibly taking the heights from peak to trough of the swell. By the time it gets to shore, you've more or less lost the trough, so the effective height breaking is roughly halved. I think.

[The Great Wallsendo]

[mark]

the maddest thing about that little gem is if you go to the north or south pole it has no effect because there is no rotational speed of the earth at the poles, that means in effect that precisely at the pole there is virtually no wind ever

[The Great Wallsendo]

the maddest thing about that little gem is if you go to the north or south pole it has no effect because there is no rotational speed of the earth at the poles, that means in effect that precisely at the pole there is virtually no wind ever

I've heard that Stores next book "Pole to Pole - a fishing journey from St Abbs to the Artic Circle" looks into just that theory...In fact Finland is a country where I want to be, Pony trekking or camping...

[NUFC09]

well on magic seaweed, the swell supposedly coming this weekend, looks like it comes from out-to-sea, but on the swell chart the wind is blowing N, by the looks of it, but on tynemouth forecast on magic seaweed says W, so i dont know what to think... i know sometimes it has predicted a rough sea, and i turn up at the beach and its as flat as a pancake

[Marty.E.]

Wallsendo, if you look further afield. Somewhere off Aberdeen you will see that there are 50mph northerlies forcast for Friday / Saturday. With winds of this strength we will definitely see a good swell on the beaches of Tynemouth etc. All winter I have been watching things develop further afield. Also you can do worse than watching the farming forecast on Sunday at 1pm as these give a good 7 days ahead prediction.
Cheers
Marty

[mark]

BBC - Weather Centre - Coast and Sea - Buoy Observations

have a look at the links on the right and make your own forecast!

[phill_itofish]

Being a surfer i've used magic seaweed for years and its never right !! dont get me wrong its a great tool and i still use if but you can be sure that if there forcasting 8ft waves and you rush to your favorate break board ing hand and they'll only be 4-6ft. As for a off shore wind knocking the sea "flat as a fart" this is definatly not true, in surfing the ideal conditions would be a good swell coming in with i large wave period and a nice offshore wind to clean the face off the wave up.

[phill_itofish]

look at the spray at the top of the wave.. deffo an offshore wind!

[Mogthemackem]

As touched on before. You can have a big swell with a westerly wind if you look further afield. There could be massive north/easterly winds up in scandanavia which will create a swell coming down to our coast which is why there's sometimes a roll on without an easterly down here. BTW Tony, I've also heard magic seaweed is pants